قوى التغير العالمية وأثرها في ضبط الانتشار النووي - التغير في الهيكلية الدولية انموذجا

The change regards basic character of age or our life, the changeability has been happened as a result of interaction of many drivers, the response was differs to this change from state to anther. The important of nuclear proliferation issue had been raised, especially in the world after the cold war era. The research in history of the development of nuclear proliferation issue. So important, to know what its development? And what's reach of it ?. And also we must to study the international system, international structure and the pattern of power distribution and as a result that phenomenon (nuclear proliferation )regards from most complex of international strategic and politic. In the other hand the important of study rise in present an image to world changing and discover the connection between the nuclear proliferation control and the pattern of power distribution in one hand, and with the international system ,the international structure. The study aimed to achieve many purpose such as:
1-Try to give an image a bout the global change.
2-Try to know ,what the density of nuclear weapons.
3- What the nuclear proliferation control means ?what its machineries ? and its approach? .
4- What the international system ,the international structure mean? and what's machineries of the changing of it?.
5- How was the international relations in the cold war era ? and how effect by the nuclear proliferation control?.
6- How was the international relations after the cold war era ? and how effect by the nuclear proliferation control?. how the unipolar system effected by the machineries which using to control of the phenomenon ?.
7-What is the future of the phenomenon?.
To achieve these purpose the study depend on many approaches, historical, systematic, analytic, descriptive and futurism approaches.
The study distributed on introduction, four sections and abstract. The first section deal with the theoretical and conceptual. While the second section deal with study of the nuclear proliferation and international powers relations in the cold war era. The third section concert by the nuclear proliferation and international powers relations after the cold war era. The fourth section study the scenario of the future of the international structure and the nuclear proliferation control.
The thesis had been reached many conclusion we can summarized in the following:
1- The change is a comprehensive operation on systems function and social relations, and its multilevel and multidimensional. The changeability as outcome don’t happened in the system forma alone but also in functions which system perform it. .
2- The political changeability describe as general, permanent ,comprehensive ,complex ,infinity and time phenomenon (depend on time as mainly factor in changeability.
3- There are many theories had been explained the change operation, according to that the researchers looked to this operation as circler or linear development.
4- The international system had been passed in physical changes .
5- The international system will not stable in one forma ,but will take many forms according to objective and selfish of the system ,its development and at systems structure according to structural theory.
6- There are many changes drivers ,the changeability of the international structure, and regard as a outcome of the change drivers push towards acting certain forma for concerning phenomenon.
7- The changeability in international structure and its form will effect in all aspect of the nuclear proliferation operation, because the strategic and tactics which followed by the active powers in international system will changing according to its position in international structure or international system.
8- The nuclear proliferation basically will take two forms ,horizontal and vertical ,the international law and international agreement prevent the horizontal and regardless about the vertical .
9- There are many approaches to the nuclear proliferation, but the basic types are global and regional approaches ,and there are integrated relation between them.
10- The nuclear proliferation control concept differs from disarmament concept but that will not prevent studying the first concept as a part of the second.
11- There are strong relation between the nuclear abilities and nuclear weapons , but not necessity every state have nuclear abilities will industry and have nuclear weapons .
12- The international system regarded on of the most unstable type among anther of the political systems.
13- In spite of the state stay the main actor in international relations but it not unique actor, many actors become play important role by the nature of international political system.
14- The international political system depend on the interaction relation, any behavior of any actor will effect by the others, so that we will must to study these groups especially the radical groups which have political purpose.
15- There are may form take it by the international premedical such as unipolar, bipolar and multipolar .
16- The distribution of international nuclear power there are declared nuclear powers according to NPT, nuclear state by de facto,and the threshold state.
17- The nuclear proliferation in the cold war era according to international power relation, the ideological conflict and the distribution of power, the military forces played political objective more than military.
18- The nuclear proliferation machineries passed in many stages , in some time two-party agreement or multiparty agreement
19- The détente between the US and soviet union push the nuclear nonproliferation before the end of the cold war.
20- After the end of the cold war , the US dominated on the world, theories and vision explain the capitalism victory it began to reread the history to make a new history ,the neorelastic,the end of history and the clash of civilizations, the last warning from the American over-confidence, and to ready to the future.
21- The machineries of the nuclear proliferation control after the cold war according to American domination by the American system such as missile shield project, extend the NPT, and motivation and sanctions system.
22- In spite of the regional approach was not prefer by the USA, it plays important role in American nuclear policy, the connection so closed between the international and regional approaches.
23- After the events of 11-september 2001 escalate which international terrorism phenomenon which had been changed the world vision to nuclear issue also the concept of the war changed, the preemptive war have been followed.
24- The double standers policy had been followed by USA with its treatment with the nuclear programs.
25-The international satisfaction was born by necessity of the change to control to the spread of nuclear weapons.
26-The international structure may be witness an significant changing, the type of the multi appear, the partnership type it must with American leadership, which reflects to the future of nuclear proliferation phenomenon may take two types :
a- The nuclear proliferation out of the control.
b- The nuclear proliferation under of the control.
27- We must to ensure the next danger to the humanities life is not in the nuclear proliferation, but in the international, regional nuclear technology, may using in changing world. And local conflict and its developing especially if based on it.